Flow Cycle Index
About Flow Cycle Index
Flow Cycle Index is a live dashboard that reads where the crypto market sits in its emotional cycle, for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL). It combines market, sentiment, positioning and macro data into a single 0–100 cycle score, maps that score to a phase, and publishes directional calls that are graded in public afterwards, hits and misses alike.
The 13 phases
Markets tend to move through a repeating sequence of crowd emotions. The index places today's market on that loop:
- Disbelief: the recovery starts, few trust it
- Hope: a rebound looks possible
- Optimism: the trend is accepted
- Belief: buyers commit with conviction
- Thrill: gains accelerate
- Euphoria: peak greed, blow-off top risk
- Complacency: the first drop is shrugged off
- Anxiety: the dip doesn't recover
- Denial: "it will come back"
- Panic: forced and emotional selling
- Capitulation: holders give up
- Anger: blame and frustration
- Depression: interest dries up near the lows
How calls are graded: receipts
Every directional call (up, down, flat, or a smaller "micro" lean) is stamped with the time it was made and graded over a fixed window, typically 12 hours, against the market-cap-weighted move of BTC, ETH and SOL together. Partial results get half credit. Windows with no call are logged as no-calls and count toward coverage, never toward the hit rate. Changing a call has a cost: a revision locks a grade on the call it replaces, so there are no silent edits.
The dashboard also keeps separate scoreboards: the mechanical model vs the editor's calls, 7-day price-target accuracy, and per-coin trade tickets with entry, take-profit and stop levels. The track record is the point. You can see how the reads actually performed, not just what they said.
Data sources
At a high level the index uses:
- Crypto prices, market cap and BTC dominance
- Sentiment: the Fear & Greed index and narrative/news signals
- Derivatives: funding rates, open interest, long/short ratios, options skew and implied volatility
- Spot ETF net flows for BTC, ETH and SOL
- Stablecoin supply and on-chain valuation (MVRV, realized price, active addresses)
- Macro: Fed net liquidity, the dollar index, Treasury yields, VIX, commodities
- Historical pattern matching against past cycle tops and bottoms since 2017
The dashboard refreshes automatically several times a day.
Follow on X: @BadmonLano · Source: GitHub · Open the live dashboard →